The 2007-2008 Post-Election Violence in Kenya: Causes, Death Toll, Displacement, ICC Cases and the Path to the 2010 Constitution

The 2007-2008 Post-Election Violence (PEV) — sometimes called the Kenyan political crisis of 2007-2008 — was one of the most consequential periods in post-independence Kenyan history. The violence that erupted following the disputed 27 December 2007 presidential election produced documented deaths of 1,133 Kenyans (per the Commission of Inquiry into the Post-Election Violence — the Waki Commission report), the internal displacement of approximately 600,000 people (with some estimates higher), substantial property destruction, the rupture of relationships between Kenyan ethnic communities particularly in the Rift Valley, Western Kenya, Nyanza, and Nairobi's informal settlements, and the broader crisis that brought Kenya to the brink of full-scale civil conflict. The international response — including the Kofi Annan-led mediation that produced the National Accord and Reconciliation Agreement of 28 February 2008 — produced the power-sharing arrangement between President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Amolo Odinga, the establishment of the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission, the constitutional review process that culminated in the 2010 Constitution, and the broader reform agenda that has reshaped contemporary Kenyan governance. The International Criminal Court subsequently indicted six prominent Kenyans (the "Ocampo Six") for crimes against humanity related to the PEV — cases that produced substantial subsequent political controversy and were eventually withdrawn or terminated under contested circumstances. This guide walks through the historical context, the election dispute, the violence, the National Accord, the subsequent reform process, the ICC cases, and the long-term implications.

The Historical Context

The 2007 election occurred against a background of substantial Kenyan political contestation between the Kibaki-led Party of National Unity (PNU) and the Raila Odinga-led Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). The Kibaki government, in power since the 2002 election that ended the Moi era, had presided over substantial economic recovery and the broader liberalisation but also faced sustained criticism over corruption (the Anglo Leasing scandal), the failure to deliver the constitutional reforms promised during the 2002 campaign, and the broader political tensions. The 2005 constitutional referendum produced a defeat for the Kibaki-supported constitutional draft, with the broader political realignment that produced the ODM-PNU competitive dynamics of 2007.

The Election and the Dispute

The 27 December 2007 election was conducted under the Samuel Kivuitu-led Electoral Commission of Kenya. Voting was largely peaceful and the parliamentary results were declared progressively over subsequent days. The presidential result, however, became progressively disputed as the count proceeded. ODM-aligned observers and election monitors alleged substantial manipulation of the presidential count at the Kenyatta International Conference Centre (KICC) tallying centre. International observers including the European Union mission expressed reservations about the announced result. On 30 December 2007, the Electoral Commission declared Mwai Kibaki the winner with 4,584,721 votes against Raila Odinga's 4,352,993 — a margin of 231,728 votes. Kibaki was sworn in for a second term within hours of the announcement at State House, in a ceremony that ODM denounced as illegitimate.

The Violence

Violence erupted across multiple parts of the country immediately following the announcement of the disputed result. The principal violence affected: the Rift Valley (with the Eldoret, Kericho, Naivasha, Nakuru, and broader Rift Valley areas experiencing substantial inter-community violence, including the burning of the Kiambaa church in Eldoret on 1 January 2008 with documented deaths of 35 Kikuyu civilians); Nyanza (Kisumu and the broader Lake Victoria region experiencing substantial protest violence and security force-civilian confrontations); Western Kenya (with selected violence in Kakamega and Bungoma); Nairobi (with substantial violence in the informal settlements of Mathare, Kibera, Korogocho, and others); and the Coast (with selected violence at Mombasa). The violence had a strong ethnic dimension — particularly Kalenjin-Kikuyu confrontation in the Rift Valley, Luo-Kikuyu confrontation in Kisumu and Nairobi informal settlements, and the broader inter-community tensions. The Waki Commission documented 1,133 deaths, with the broader human-rights documentation including substantial sexual violence and property destruction.

The National Accord

International mediation led by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, supported by African Union and broader international diplomatic engagement, produced the National Accord and Reconciliation Agreement signed by Kibaki and Odinga on 28 February 2008. The Accord established: a Government of National Unity with Kibaki as President and Odinga as Prime Minister; a power-sharing Cabinet arrangement between PNU and ODM; the constitutional review process that would lead to a new constitution; the establishment of the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission; the Independent Review Commission (the Kriegler Commission) to investigate the election conduct; the Commission of Inquiry into the Post-Election Violence (the Waki Commission); and the broader institutional reforms to address the crisis's root causes.

The Waki Commission and the ICC Path

The Waki Commission, chaired by Justice Philip Waki, investigated the violence and produced its report in October 2008. The report documented the 1,133 deaths, identified the planning and orchestration of selected violence, and produced a sealed envelope containing the names of senior individuals it recommended for prosecution. The Commission recommended either the establishment of a Kenyan special tribunal to prosecute those responsible, or referral to the International Criminal Court. The Kenyan Parliament failed to enact the special-tribunal legislation, and the names were referred to the ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo in 2009.

The ICC Cases

The ICC Prosecutor in 2010 named six Kenyans for prosecution — the "Ocampo Six" — comprising: Uhuru Kenyatta (then Deputy Prime Minister), William Ruto (then Cabinet Minister), Francis Muthaura (then Head of Public Service), Joshua arap Sang (a Kalenjin-language radio journalist), Hussein Ali (former Police Commissioner), and Henry Kosgey (former Cabinet Minister). The cases proceeded through ICC pre-trial confirmation proceedings with substantial domestic political controversy. The cases against Muthaura, Kosgey, and Ali were dismissed at pre-trial. The case against Kenyatta was withdrawn by the Prosecutor in December 2014 citing the inability to produce sufficient evidence given documented witness withdrawal, intimidation, and the broader case-collapse. The case against Ruto and Sang was terminated in April 2016 by the Trial Chamber citing similar evidentiary issues. The ICC processes were among the most consequential international-justice attempts at addressing African post-conflict accountability, with substantial controversy regarding both the substantive merits and the operational conduct.

The 2010 Constitution

The constitutional review process produced the 2010 Constitution, approved through the August 2010 referendum with 67 per cent voting Yes. The 2010 Constitution introduced devolution (the 47 county governments), the comprehensive Bill of Rights, the strengthened separation of powers, the constitutional commissions (Auditor-General, EACC, KNCHR, NLC, IEBC, and others), the integrity provisions of Chapter Six, the broader human-rights framework, and the comprehensive reform of the executive, legislative, and judicial structures. The Constitution is widely considered one of the most progressive in Africa and represents the principal positive long-term outcome of the post-2008 reform process.

The Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission

The TJRC, established under the National Accord framework, investigated historical injustices including the post-election violence, the broader political-violence history of independent Kenya, and the systemic injustices documented by the broader public-engagement process. The TJRC report submitted in May 2013 contained substantial recommendations on reparations, institutional reform, and the broader accountability framework. Implementation of the TJRC recommendations has been partial, with the broader reparations framework progressively addressed through subsequent legislation and administrative action.

Long-Term Implications

The PEV and the subsequent reform process have shaped contemporary Kenyan governance and society in foundational ways. The 2010 Constitution, the devolution framework, the strengthened independent institutions, and the broader constitutional dispensation are the principal positive outcomes. The continued societal work of reconciliation, the unresolved IDPs (a substantial cohort of the 600,000 displaced have been resettled or compensated, but the broader resettlement work has been incomplete), the continued reform of electoral institutions (with the IEBC reforms continuing to be debated), and the broader accountability work remain ongoing.

The Bigger Picture

The 2007-2008 Post-Election Violence is one of the most consequential events in modern Kenyan history. The crisis produced both the worst political violence Kenya has experienced and the most ambitious constitutional reform the country has undertaken. The broader memory, the unresolved accountability questions, the continued societal work of reconciliation, and the ongoing implementation of the 2010 Constitution together shape contemporary Kenyan political and social life. For Kenyans, for international audiences interested in African political crises and democratic transitions, and for the broader scholarly community, the PEV experience remains foundational to understanding modern Kenya.

The Kenya Law portal hosts the 2010 Constitution and the Waki Commission report. The International Criminal Court publishes the case documents for the Kenya situation.